CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2020-03-02T20:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2020-03-02T20:00ZCME Note: From Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: The in-situ observations exhibit two coherent magnetic structures with monotonic changes in the magnetic field profile. Possibly, they could be the traces of streamer blow outs. Remote sensing observations are required to fully identify and characterize the structures. The first one arrives on march 6, around 14 hrs UT and last for 10 hrs. It is a coherent structure without clear rotation in the magnetic field rotation but low temperature. The second structure displays a magnetic field rotation and low temperature flux rope signatures. It starts around 14 hrs UT and last for 13 hrs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-03-06T14:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-03-07T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 2.2 Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2020-03-03T05:49Z Radial velocity (km/s): 240 km/s Longitude (deg): 22W Latitude (deg): 01S Half-angular width (deg): 28 deg Notes: Faint on SOHO Lasco C2/C3, but clearer on Stereo A with evidence of a partial halo stealth CME. There is no clear source region in SDO imagery. It is travelling slower than the background solar wind speed so may not be discernible in ACE/DSCVR solar wind data. Low confidence. Space weather advisor: MOSWOCLead Time: 68.00 hour(s)
Difference: -22.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2020-03-03T18:00Z
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